The MLB All-Star break is almost here, which means we are already past the halfway point of baseball’s marathon regular season. And what a season it’s been. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani continue to amaze. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh is doing things no backstop has ever done. Tarik Skubal has separated himself as the best pitcher in baseball. As the woeful Colorado Rockies continue to trend towards the worst kind of MLB history, they—and a few other teams—parted ways with their manager during the first half. Oh, and the Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers have emerged as early World Series favorites.
Baseball’s biggest stars will take center stage at the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game on July 14 and 15, respectively, and that will be our focus here in another edition of Fact or Fiction.
Paul Skenes should be the National League’s starting pitcher for the second straight year
Verdict: Fiction
This is a tough one. The honor could realistically go to one of three guys: Skenes, Zack Wheeler or perhaps even longtime Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, an addition to the roster as a “Legend Pick,” if NL manager Dave Roberts is feeling particularly partisan.
But if we’re being realistic, this decision will come down to Skenes and Wheeler. And in many ways, it’s a toss-up. Skenes leads the NL in ERA. Wheeler, second in the NL in ERA, leads the league in strikeouts. Wheeler, as a result of playing for the better team in the Phillies, has racked up nine wins compared to Skenes’s four. But the margin between these pitchers is razor thin, as evidenced by their ERAs (Skenes: 1.94, Wheeler: 2.17) and WAR (Skenes: 4.8, Wheeler: 4.8).
I’m giving the slight edge to Wheeler. Since May 1, Wheeler has been the undisputed best pitcher in his league. He leads all NL starting pitchers in the following categories since that date: ERA, K-BB%, opponents’ batting average, WHIP and opponents’ barrel rate. To put it simply, he’s been unhittable.
Look no further than Wheeler’s most recent start, a complete game one-hitter in which he allowed one run and struck out 12 Cincinnati Reds. It put a bow on a convincing case for Wheeler to toe the rubber for the NL.
I’d typically be the first guy to advocate for Skenes to start again. Who want to see him face off against Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh back-to-back, depending on how American League manager Aaron Boone writes up the lineup card?
But the honor should go to Wheeler, not only for his success this season, but his overall body of work over the last several years. Plus, at 35 years old, this may realistically be the last shot he has at starting the All-Star Game.
Roberts should give Wheeler that shot. And if given the chance, Wheeler will be the first pitcher on the mound for the NL on July 15 at Truist Park, just a few miles away from where the Smyrna, Ga., native grew up.
Cal Raleigh will win the Home Run Derby
Verdict: Fact
I have, admittedly, been a bit doubtful of Raleigh’s ability to keep up his torrid pace in past iterations of Fact or Fiction. So consider this a mea culpa of sorts to the Big Dumper’s success.
Before I outline why I like Raleigh to win here, let me be clear about one thing. The field for the Derby is not fully set yet, so we don’t yet know exactly who will be opposing Raleigh aside from Ronald Acuna Jr., James Wood, Byron Buxton and Oneil Cruz.
That said, I like Raleigh to emerge here for several reasons. Aside from the fact that he’s been the best home-run hitter in baseball in the first half, he also leads all Derby contestants—regardless of who enters—in several statistics that are highly predictive of home runs. He owns a Derby-best .372 isolated power. He leads all of MLB in fly-ball rate. Raleigh trails only Cruz in barrel rate, essentially the number of baseballs he connects with that are hit at the ideal exit velocity and launch angle to leave the park. And lastly, Raleigh’s MLB-high average launch angle of 24.5 degrees is right near the typical sweet spot of 25 to 35 degrees for home runs.
His swing is also perfect for Truist Park, which features especially short dimensions to the corners. In fact, Truist Park’s 335-foot left field corner and 325-foot right field dimensions are extremely similar to those of Raleigh’s home park with the Mariners, T-Mobile Park, which is 331 feet to left and 327 feet to right.
That would seem to play right into the hands of Raleigh, who leads all Derby entrants with a 55.2% pull rate. This means that no one in the Derby will be better equipped to take advantage of the shortest parts of Truist Park than Raleigh, who will have the added benefit of batting from both sides of the plate, which he apparently intends to do.
Working against Raleigh is the fact that he’s a catcher—no backstop has ever won the Derby. But he’s already doing things no other catcher has ever done. Why not add another to the list?
Juan Soto is the biggest All-Star snub
Verdict: Fact
Another tough one, because there were, as always, plenty of snubs (it’s tough to please everyone!). There’s Chicago Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who leads MLB in RBIs. There’s Houston Astros southpaw Framber Valdez, who ranks among the top 20 starters in ERA, quality starts, innings pitched and WAR. And there’s Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner, the NL leader in hits and one of the best defensive shortstops in the game.
But the biggest snub of them all is Juan Soto.
The first two months of Soto’s career in Queens were underwhelming, as he was on pace for the worst OPS of his career while simply looking… off, both in terms of his approach at the plate and his demeanor. Those days are long gone, though. After a torrid June and red-hot start to July, Soto ranks third in MLB in OBP and sixth in the NL in OPS.
Since May 1, Soto ranks first in walk rate, sixth in OPS, fourth in wRC+, and in the top five in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He’s been a terror to opposing pitchers.
Soto likely didn’t make it because of his lackluster start, as well as the Mets’ June swoon. But it’ll be unfortunate to play a game that supposedly features baseball’s biggest stars without Juan Soto on the field.
The Blue Jays will win the AL East
Verdict: Fiction
How about those Blue Jays? They’ve won nine games in a row entering Tuesday and recently swept the New York Yankees in a four-game series to overtake them for first place in the AL East. But this has been far from just a hot streak for Toronto.
Since May 25, the Blue Jays own the best record in baseball and have been powered by a mighty offense that has scored more runs than all but one team during that stretch of play.
So, to be clear, this is no fluke. But there are at least a couple of reasons why some healthy skepticism about the Blue Jays’ chances of winning the AL East is warranted.
Toronto currently has a plus-16 run differential, which is the worst of any current division leader in MLB. In fact, that plus-16 run differential is just the fourth-best in the AL East, behind the Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox. The Blue Jays’ Pythagorean win/loss record is 47–44. The club’s actual record? 53–38. Could there be some regression to the mean incoming for the Blue Jays? It’s possible.
The other reason I’m a bit leery to anoint them atop the AL East right now is that the Blue Jays’ starting pitching is suspect. Toronto’s starters have compiled the sixth-worst ERA in the majors. Conversely, both the Rays and Yankees have better and more reliable starting pitching staffs. Perhaps the Blue Jays’ front office swings a deadline deal for a top-of-the-rotation starter. Maybe that tilts the race in their favor. But for now, if asked to bet on the Blue Jays or the field winning the AL East, I’ll take the field.
Manny Machado’s 2000th hit secured his Hall of Fame enshrinement
Verdict: Fiction
is a bit strong for my taste, but that’s the only thing holding me back from calling this a fact. Machado is on the statistical path to the Hall of Fame, and 2,000 hits was an important checkpoint.
Consider this. There are 19 third baseman in the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Only 14 of them compiled at least 2,000 career hits. Machado, 33 and with eight years left on his San Diego Padres contract, already has 2,001 and counting. Of the five third basemen who have ever hit 400 or more career home runs, four are in the Hall. Machado, who currently has 357 career homers, will almost certainly surpass 400 and already ranks 10th at his position.
The remarkably durable Machado, who has nine times played 150 or more games in a season, could, with continued good health, realistically flirt with 3,000 hits and 500 career homers, numbers that would ensure a one-way ticket to the Hall. Even if he were to fall short of those landmark numbers—think 2,700 hits and 450 career homers—I still like Machado’s chances.
So, too, do the advanced metrics. In both WAR and JAWS (a metric that compares players to those already enshrined in the Hall of Fame using career WAR and seven-year peak WAR), Machado is already approaching Hall of Fame territory.
The numbers are working in Machado’s case. What isn’t is the fact that he’s never won an MVP, often considered a good prerequisite to the Hall, despite having four top-five finishes. There’s also a chance that Machado rubbed some of the baseball writers the wrong way with his views on hustling. He once rather infamously said that hustling was “not his cup of tea” after he came under fire for not running out a grounder during the 2018 National League Championship Series. Would 33-year-old Machado make the same comments? Who knows. However, it’s fair to wonder if that will be held against him, as some might view that attitude as not very becoming of a Hall of Fame player.
But it’ll be hard to keep Machado out if he reaches certain statistical milestones. And if he continues his remarkably consistent statistical compiling, it’ll be easy to envision him one day being enshrined.
